Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Statistics

The typical count of everyday homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new official statistics. However, security specialists have cautioned that homicide data might not signal enhanced countrywide safety.

Significant Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September. This announcement was provided by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had over these months is very notable,” the President said, adding that last month the smallest figure of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an apparently sharper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main components of the President's security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between government authorities.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

However, public safety researchers cautioned that focusing solely on murder statistics to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is notably true considering the rise in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just look at the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not useful for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was also concerning because it could hide days when there were especially elevated levels of murders.

“Using the per-day average makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can point to the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains grappling with severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. Last month there was a notable killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to show their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to build a narrative of safety. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas concluded.