Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is another development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, including his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.